U.S. Presidential Election: A Crucial Turning Point for U.S. Energy Policy
The stakes of energy in the 2024 U.S. presidential election are of critical importance for both domestic policy and the United States’ position on the international stage. The energy sector is at the intersection of economic, environmental, and geopolitical concerns, making it a central issue for voters and an ideological battleground among the candidates. Between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the positions differ greatly.
In 2024, the United States remains one of the world’s leading producers of oil and natural gas, thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking). However, the global energy transition and climate commitments made at international summits such as COP26 have put the current administration under pressure to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and promote renewable energy. President Joe Biden has undertaken extensive reforms to green the American economy, notably through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed in 2022. This act marked a turning point in terms of subsidies and investments in clean energy, supporting wind and solar energy production and promoting electric vehicles. However, these measures have also drawn criticism, particularly from oil companies and some states reliant on revenues generated by hydrocarbon extraction.
Oil Production
Donald Trump aims to fully leverage the advantage of shale gas and oil exploitation. He maintains strong support from the oil sector, which is the primary contributor to his campaign. Republican candidates typically adopt a stance focused on deregulation and revitalization of the oil and gas industry. The main argument put forward is national energy security and independence from imports. This position is particularly popular in energy-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota. The challenge is to strike a balance between economic growth, often associated with fossil fuel exploitation, and the pressure to incorporate sustainable development elements. The Republican stance may attract voters concerned about employment and rising energy prices, but it risks facing criticism over climate change management. If the Republican candidate were to win the election, the renewable energy sector could be threatened. Donald Trump has already announced that if he wins, he will immediately halt offshore wind projects. He also plans to dismantle the tax incentive scheme of the Inflation Reduction Act, launched by Joe Biden two years ago, as he deems it unnecessary and costly. This scheme has generated $450 billion in private investments in the U.S. renewable energy sector.
On the Democratic side, the focus is on energy transition and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of ambitious climate policies, including extending tax credits for renewable energy, developing green hydrogen, and improving the energy efficiency of infrastructure, forms a core pillar of the proposals. Kamala Harris could emphasize the long-term economic benefits of a decarbonized economy while highlighting job creation in the green technology sectors. However, the question remains whether the electorate, faced with potential cost increases and energy inflation, will fully embrace this vision. In the renewable energy sector, both business leaders and unions are anxiously awaiting the election outcome. It should be noted that the American renewable energy sector has become the largest in the world, thanks to the highly favorable tax incentive policies of President Joe Biden. The IRA is a true catalyst for change in the U.S. energy transition.
These elections are taking place in a context where the pressure to combat climate change is intensifying. The United States faces extreme climate events that highlight the urgency of adopting eco-friendly measures. Additionally, the country must manage international tensions, particularly with Russia and China, which influence global energy supply. Democrats believe that regulation of the sector is necessary, especially within the framework of the Paris Agreement. Donald Trump had withdrawn from it, but Joe Biden rejoined. The real problem with American oil extraction focuses on the massive methane leaks caused by drilling. Methane causes greater warming than carbon. The U.S. oil sector alone has emissions equivalent to those of half of American households, a true environmental disaster in the eyes of the world. Joe Biden recently implemented regulations requiring companies to limit these emissions starting in 2026, but Donald Trump has expressed readiness to repeal them.
Our opinion: Saudi Arabia’s desire to gain market share, particularly in the U.S., could be exacerbated if the U.S. supports increased production. Our current objectives remain at 65-75 USD to account for these risks..
WTI & Brent prices
