{"id":32512,"date":"2025-07-07T10:16:41","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T08:16:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/?p=32512"},"modified":"2025-07-18T11:59:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T09:59:57","slug":"weekly-flash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/2025\/07\/07\/weekly-flash\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Flash – Week 27"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 3 must-know news stories of the week and What We Think<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. US job market: a gradual slowdown without immediate tension<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. US budget: Trump pushes through his \u201cBig Beautiful Bill\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Eurozone inflation: on target, ECB stays the course<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    US job market: a gradual slowdown without immediate tension<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    U.S. job creation exceeded expectations in June, with 147,000 new positions added versus 110,000 anticipated. The May figure was revised upwards to 144,000, confirming a moderate but still positive momentum. These gains were concentrated in the healthcare and local government sectors, while job cuts continued at federal level, in line with the Republican executive’s goal of reducing the size of government. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% (from 4.2% in May), where analysts had expected it to rise to 4.3%. This level is generally considered to be close to full employment. But behind this apparent solidity, the ADP report published the day before sent a more worrying signal: 33,000 net job losses in the private sector, a rare event (only the second contraction since the Covid). The three-month rolling average for job creation fell to 19,000, its lowest level since the health crisis. According to ADP, this contraction is due not so much to waves of layoffs as to employers’ pronounced caution in hiring or replacing departures. In terms of salaries, annual pay rises for job stayers fell to 4.4%, a four-year low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"
    Sources\u00a0: Trading Economics<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

    Our opinion<\/strong>: The U.S. labor market is sending mixed signals: still resilient on headline figures, but showing signs of an underlying slowdown. The Fed can afford to wait \u2014 the data doesn\u2019t justify an immediate rate cut, but a persistent deceleration could force its hand by autumn. For now, this supports a wait-and-see approach, while keeping the door open to a rate cut in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    U.S. budget: Trump passes his \u201cBig Beautiful Bill\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    A major political turning point: Donald Trump has succeeded in pushing his massive $3.4 trillion budget plan through the House. Passed by a narrow margin (218 votes to 214), the bill signals a decisive shift in U.S. economic policy: tax cuts, reductions in social programs, a ramp-up in defense spending, and a rollback of several energy transition initiatives. Two Republicans \u2014 Thomas Massie (Kentucky) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania) \u2014 voted against the bill, siding with the Democratic opposition. It took extensive negotiations to win over the final holdouts. Trump plans to sign the bill on Friday at 4:00 p.m. during a ceremony at the White House. Among the flagship measures are the elimination of taxes on tips  (a strong symbolic gesture aimed at working-class voters) as well as increased support for military spending and stricter immigration control. However, the plan has sparked concerns: according to the Congressional Budget Office, it will increase the national debt by more than $3.4 trillion by 2034<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"
    Sources\u00a0:\u00a0 Congressional Budget Office<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

    Our Opinion<\/strong>: The \u201cBig Beautiful Bill\u201d signals a clear return to expansionary fiscal policy with an electoral undertone at the cost of a significant increase in the deficit. Seemingly favorable to households and businesses, this budget bill could have second-round effects (pressure on US rates and the dollar). It offers short-term economic support but could quickly complicate the Fed\u2019s efforts if inflation picks up again. Some sectors are likely to benefit including defense, aerospace, industrials, semiconductors, and fossil fuels. On the other hand, some tax incentives will be withdrawn from sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and agri-food.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Eurozone inflation: on target, ECB stays the course<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Annual inflation in the eurozone stood at 2% in June, compared to 1.9% in May exactly in line with the ECB\u2019s target and market expectations. The uptick was mainly due to a smaller drop in energy prices (-2.7% vs. -3.6% in May) and a slight increase in service prices (3.3% after 3.2%). Core inflation excluding energy and food  remained stable at 2.3%. This level, still above the ECB\u2019s target, supports the gradual policy path adopted since the first rate cut in June 2024. In other components, food prices continued to ease (3.1%, down 0.1 point), while inflation for industrial goods fell to 0.5%. Christine Lagarde stated that current interest rate levels are appropriate and reaffirmed the ECB\u2019s strong commitment to maintaining its 2% inflation objective.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"
    Sources\u00a0:\u00a0 Bloomberg, European Central Bank<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

    Our opinion:<\/strong>  The ECB\u2019s June 5 decision came as no surprise and fits within the trajectory of policy adjustments since the inflation crisis peak. With eight rate cuts already implemented, the central bank now appears ready to pause over the summer. However, another cut may still be on the table before year-end, if economic and inflation data warrant it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The 3 must-know news stories of the week and What We Think US job market: a gradual slowdown without immediate tension U.S. job creation exceeded expectations in June, with 147,000 new positions added versus 110,000 anticipated. The May figure was revised upwards to 144,000, confirming a moderate but still positive momentum. These gains were concentrated […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-32512","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro-markets"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32512"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32512\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32689,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32512\/revisions\/32689"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}