{"id":33753,"date":"2026-01-19T10:06:04","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T09:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/?p=33753"},"modified":"2026-01-19T10:06:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T09:06:06","slug":"weekly-radar-week-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/2026\/01\/19\/weekly-radar-week-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Radar – Week 3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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  1. TSMC<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. ASML \/ ASM I<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    US EQUITIES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Will TSMC\u2019s salvation be American?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    • \u00a0TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company<\/strong>) was founded in1987<\/strong>\u00a0by Morris Chang<\/strong>\u00a0(94 years old), at the initiative of the Taiwanese government and thanks to funding from\u00a0Philips<\/strong>, which originally held 28% of the capital. Since 1997, TSMC has been listed in the United States through an ADR.TSMC is the first pure-play foundry<\/strong>, meaning it only handles the manufacturing of chips that designers outsource to it. Until the early 2000s, electronics conglomerates designed and manufactured all their electronic devices from the chip to the system; they are called IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturers). The creation of TSMC therefore marks the beginning of a first revolution in the semiconductor industry.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Over time,\u00a0TSMC became the leader in outsourced chip manufacturing<\/strong>, and even more so in the production of the most advanced processors. First, TSMC became the leader in processors for mobile phones after 2007. Although the United States lost its leadership in chip manufacturing from at least the early 1990s to Asian countries,\u00a02017\u20132018 marked a second turning point for the industry<\/strong>. At that moment, TSMC surpassed Samsung and Intel by being the\u00a0first to master the 7 nm process<\/strong>\u00a0(1 nm = 10^-9 m). In 2026, TSMC began large\u2011scale production of 2 nm chips, while Intel still struggles to catch up technologically.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • The publication of Q4\u201125 on 01-15\u20112025 and the new investment announcements from TSMC on American soil teach us four things.\u00a01-demand<\/strong>\u00a0for AI computing processors is very strong;\u00a02-<\/strong>TSMC\u2019s leadership is reflected inrecord margins<\/strong>;\u00a03-capital intensity is accelerating<\/strong>;\u00a04-by 2030<\/strong>, the United States should drastically\u00a0reduce the supply risk linked<\/strong>\u00a0to the ambition of the\u00a0People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC)<\/strong>\u00a0to reunify Taiwan<\/strong>\u00a0with mainland China.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • TSMC reported<\/strong>\u00a0revenue of $34 billion in Q4\u201124,\u00a0up 26% in USD<\/strong>. Gross margin and operating margin reached their\u00a0historical records at 62.3% and 54%<\/strong>.\u00a0Net income increased by 41%.<\/strong>\u00a0In 2026, management expects 30% revenue growth, driven in particular by a growth rate of 55\u201360% per year for AI accelerator processors by 2029.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • This growth requires investments<\/strong>, which have so far been very profitable. TSMC spends more than half of its cash flows on capex. These will amount to between\u00a0$52 and $56 billion,<\/strong>\u00a0or 27% to 37% more than in 2025.\u00a0Beyond the increase in demand described above, two other elements explain the acceleration in investment growth<\/strong>.\u00a0The cost of production and the selling price of chips manufactured<\/strong>\u00a0by TSMC relative to their number of transistors<\/strong>(the basic element of a chip) have\u00a0risen sharply<\/strong>\u00a0over the past two years and should increase further with upcoming technological nodes.\u00a0The ever\u2011smaller transistor costs more!<\/strong>\u00a0However, for several years, TSMC\u2019s transistor has been the most energy\u2011efficient compared to those of its competitors, a key element for its clients.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Finally,\u00a070% of its revenue is generated from American customers<\/strong>, and the PRC aims to reunify Taiwan with China<\/strong>\u00a0by force if necessary in the medium term. In this context, the United States obtained from TSMC and Taiwan that they invest significantly in the United States in order to be\u00a0sovereign over this strategic industry<\/strong>. In practice, at the\u00a0end of 2025<\/strong>,\u00a0TSMC has 15 factories<\/strong>: 2 in China, 1 in Arizona, 1 in Japan, and 11 in Taiwan.\u00a0At the end of 2025, only 4 factories<\/strong>\u00a0can produce chips\u00a0below 7 nm<\/strong>. The first plant in\u00a0Arizona<\/strong>\u00a0is equipped to produce\u00a0up to 4 nm<\/strong>; the other three are in Taiwan. Announced in May 2020, the construction of the\u00a0Arizona plant costed $12 billion<\/strong>\u00a0and has been operating since late 2024 with a capacity of a\u00a0few hundred thousand wafers per year, compared to 17 million in total for TSMC in 2025<\/strong>. Two other plants in Arizona are under construction and another is awaiting a building permit. The second is expected to enter production in the second half of 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • In March 2025<\/strong>, TSMC announced a\u00a0new $100 billion investment<\/strong>\u00a0for three additional foundries in the United States, two packaging plants, and an R&D center,\u00a0in addition to the $65 billion of ongoing projects in Phoenix<\/strong>. This expansion plan should allow TSMC to reach\u00a01.2 to 2.4 million wafers per year in the medium term<\/strong>, according to our interpretation of management\u2019s comments during the earnings release. The next day, the U.S. administration and Taiwan agreed on reduced customs duties of 15%,\u00a0or even 0%, up to 1.5\u00d7 their semiconductor production capacity in the United States<\/strong>.\u00a0In<\/strong>\u00a0return<\/strong>, Taiwan and its companies\u00a0must invest at least $250 billion in the United States<\/strong>. TSMC could therefore go from one plant in Arizona in 2024 to a dozen before 2030.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • While investing in equipment seems the easiest part,\u00a0maintaining high productivity in the United States will be a challenge for TSMC.<\/strong>\u00a0Its leadership depends above all on the\u00a0know\u2011how<\/strong>\u00a0of its employees and suppliers from the\u00a0Republic Of China<\/strong>\u00a0(Taiwan), as well as their industrial secrets. A\u00a0brain drain<\/strong>equivalent to that of\u00a0the Manhattan Project from 1942 to 1946<\/strong>\u00a0and then for the development of rockets will undoubtedly be necessary for the United States to get back in the race, and offering a chance to Taiwanese technicians to continue to live in a liberal society if the PRC were to invade Taiwan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      EUROPEAN EQUITIES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Record stock prices for semiconductor equipment manufacturers in Europe!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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      • The European\u00a0semiconductor sector<\/strong>, specifically\u00a0equipment manufacturers<\/strong>, is the\u00a0most sought-after sector among investors at the start of 2026<\/strong>. In just 10 trading sessions,\u00a0ASML Holding, ASM International<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0BE Semiconductors<\/strong>\u00a0(BESI), all listed in the Netherlands, gained between 25% (ASML Holding, which has rebounded by more than 60% in the last six months) and 31% (ASM International). All of them have seen their share prices reach\u00a0new all-time highs<\/strong>, surpassing their previous record set in July 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • The key factor supporting the sector is the expected\u00a0very strong global demand for artificial intelligence applications<\/strong>, which is enabling Taiwanese giant\u00a0TSMC<\/strong>\u00a0to forecast capital expenditure for 2026 well above expectations ($56 billion, more than a quarter higher than in 2025), a strong signal from TSMC about current capacity constraints and its\u00a0conviction that AI-related spending will continue<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • ASML<\/strong>, the largest market capitalisation in the European sector, will be the\u00a0primary beneficiary<\/strong>\u00a0of the increase in capacity at TSMC, its main customer (representing 20 to 30% of sales of its flagship EUV (Extreme UltraViolet lithography) machines). ASML’s delivery times, which can be up to 18 months, mean that a large part of TSMC’s 2026 capital expenditure is probably already included in current orders. It is the period after 2026 that is at stake here and will offer the European group tremendous visibility thanks to this prospect of multi-year growth linked to higher value-added processors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • When TSMC increases its investments,\u00a0ASML is automatically the primary beneficiary<\/strong>, as TSMC cannot increase its capacity in advanced nodes without purchasing more EUV\/DUV lithography machines, for which ASML Holding has a virtual\u00a0monopoly<\/strong>. In addition, AI-related calculations are very memory chip-intensive. Investment in dynamic random access memory (DRAM<\/strong>) production is expected to increase following the explosion in its price in 2025. The three main DRAM manufacturers (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology) have all announced that they will be adding greenfield capacities in 2026. This will reduce the risk of bottlenecks and alleviate concerns about clean room space constraints. ASML should therefore benefit from the\u00a0DRAM super cycle<\/strong>, but also from strong demand for\u00a0computing processors<\/strong>. TSMC plans to expand its 3 nm capacity to meet AI-related demand; 3 nm is the node with the highest lithographic intensity, which is therefore very positive for ASML Holding.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • The increase in TSMC’s capacity also means\u00a0more orders for ASM International machines<\/strong>, the leader in ALD (Atomic Layer Deposition) technology, which is critical for depositing materials used in advanced node chips (where growth is strongest). Finally, naturally,\u00a0more orders for tools for advanced chip packaging\u00a0<\/strong>on their electronic systems are also expected. Here,BESI<\/strong>\u00a0will be the primary beneficiary thanks to its unique expertise.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • TSMC’s management, reiterating that AI demand is \u2018real and sustainable\u2019,reinforces the sector’s bullish bias for European suppliers<\/strong>\u00a0whose tools (EUV, deposition or advanced packaging) are key to\u00a0efficiency gains.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n
        \n
        \"\"
        Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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