{"id":34508,"date":"2026-04-09T10:07:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T08:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/?p=34508"},"modified":"2026-04-09T10:07:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T08:07:06","slug":"investment-strategy-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/2026\/04\/09\/investment-strategy-april\/","title":{"rendered":"Investment Strategy \u2013 April"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Oil prices could remain high in 2026.<\/strong> The April macroeconomic scenario is marked by extreme uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and U.S. trade policy. However, a strong labor market, momentum in the investment cycle, and the midterm election campaign are supporting economic growth in the United States.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>High oil prices and their negative impact on interest rates are likely to persist,<\/strong> undermining growth prospects in Asia, emerging markets, and Europe. However, this shock could be better absorbed thanks to the rise of electric energy, the bypassing of the Strait of Hormuz, and the relative decline in the Middle East\u2019s share of global supply in favor of the Americas (the U.S., Latin America, and Canada).<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>In the United States:<\/strong> GDP growth and unemployment are projected at +2.3% \/ +2.5% and ~4.5%, respectively, while inflation is expected to exceed 3.5% in June. Consumption remains robust, investment is strong, and the positive effects of the OBBBA are taking hold. The midterms election year, which typically supports household purchasing power, is favorable.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>In Europe:<\/strong> Growth is slowing compared to forecasts made at the start of the year. The ECB has revised its forecasts to 0.9% GDP growth and 2.6% inflation for 2026. The oil shock is compounding Europe\u2019s loss of structural competitiveness relative to the rest of the world.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Central Banks:<\/strong> Prospects for lower short-term rates are being called into question by the war in the Middle East. We expect a likely rate hike of up to 50 bps by the ECB by the end of 2026, no cut in the Fed Funds rate, stable rates from the SNB, a 25-bps rate hike by the BoE, and BoJ rates at 1% \/ 1.25% in 2026.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long-term rates:<\/strong> We expect a modest rise, driven by the deterioration in public finances. There is no consensus among investors regarding the prospect of widespread price increases similar to those seen during previous energy shocks. The flattening of the yield curve continued in March 2026:<br>10\u20132-year US spread = 52 bps on 03\/31\/2026 vs. 70 bps on 12\/31\/2025;<br>10\u20132-year German spread = 39 bps on 03\/31\/2026 vs. 73 bps on 12\/31\/2025.<br>Corporate credit spreads are up slightly (BBB Europe +30 bps at the end of March compared to the low in early February).<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Equities:<\/strong> Earnings growth is expected to remain a key driver for the stock market. The consensus EPS estimate for the S&amp;P 500 is still +19% for 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">ASSET ALLOCATION<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In this context, our asset allocation and sector views are changing:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We maintain a neutral stance on equities pending a resolution of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp rise in oil prices is weighing on emerging markets, Asia, and Europe. The U.S. market is less sensitive to oil, and the S&amp;P 500\u2019s P\/E ratio has fallen from 22x to below 20x.<br>As of April 2, 2026, the consensus EPS growth forecast for the S&amp;P 500 is estimated at 19% for 2026 according to LSEG I\/B\/E\/S, an acceleration from the 15.6% forecast at the end of 2025.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bonds:<\/strong> We continue to favor short- to medium-term durations. We maintain a neutral stance on sovereign bonds, torn between their role as a safe-haven asset and the risk of an inflation premium. The yield curve is flattening. We are downgrading corporate credit to neutral for the US and Europe and to underweight for emerging markets, given the risk of widening spreads.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sector Views:<\/strong> We maintain our neutral stance on banks (leveraged private credit risk, commercial real estate). We maintain our positive bias toward aerospace and defense stocks. We continue to observe a market divergence favoring the winners against the losers of generative AI (semiconductors, software). We maintain our positive view on oil majors.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>We are maintaining our exposure to gold<\/strong> following the price decline in Q1 2026, in anticipation of central bank rate hikes.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD:<\/strong> The war in the Gulf is allowing the dollar to temporarily regain its status as a safe-haven currency.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Oil:<\/strong> Prices will remain above $100 per barrel until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong>To find out more<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Investment-Strategy-08-april-2026.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Investment Strategy - April 2026.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-4746896a-d22c-496b-8cdf-3135c2ac8b33\" href=\"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Investment-Strategy-08-april-2026.pdf\">Investment Strategy &#8211; April 2026<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Investment-Strategy-08-april-2026.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-4746896a-d22c-496b-8cdf-3135c2ac8b33\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK ASSET ALLOCATION In this context, our asset allocation and sector views are changing: To find out more<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34504,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-34508","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro-markets"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34508"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34508\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34512,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34508\/revisions\/34512"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.banquerichelieu.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}