- ASML
A EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGICAL GEM
- On April 15, 2026, ASML reported its first-quarter results. The Dutch manufacturer of semiconductor lithography systems, the only company in the world to master EUV technology posted revenue of €8.8 billion, a gross margin of 53%, and net income of €2.8 billion. In response, management raised its full-year revenue forecast for 2026 to €36-40 billion, up from €34-39 billion in January 2026.
- Memory machines in high demand
What stands out in these results is the balance between two major types of customers: logic chip manufacturers (processors) accounted for 49% of system sales, while memory manufacturers accounted for 51% in Q1 2026. We have to go back to fiscal year 2018 to find a memory-dominated mix in ASML’s revenue. In response to the global shortage of memory chips, whose prices have reached 10-year highs according to ASML management, major RAM manufacturers such as SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron invest heavily in new production capacity, which should continue to support ASML’s memory segment. For the 2025-2030 period, ASML anticipates stronger annual growth in EUV lithography spending for memory than for logic chips 15% to 25% versus 10% to 20%, respectively. EUV technology was first introduced for logic chip manufacturing in 2017-2018 and much later for memory. - EUV High NA: A medium-term growth opportunity
Beyond immediate results, it is the technology roadmap that underpins the company’s medium-term outlook. ASML is developing a next-generation machine, the EUV High NA, capable of 8-nanometer resolution where current machines reach 13 nm. This increased precision reduces manufacturing complexity: a single High NA exposure replaces three or four successive exposures with current EUV machines, and can reduce the number of production steps for this critical etching layer by up to tenfold. Today, EUV High NA systems have been delivered for R&D purposes, and ASML announced in late 2024 that the machine would be introduced for high-volume production in 2026. The machine is gradually entering its industrial phase, with encouraging test results reported by its customers earlier this year at the SPIE conference in February 2026. As productivity, measured in wafers per hour (WpH), increases from 135-175 WpH today to a target of 175–195 WpH by 2030, ASML will be able to sell more units at higher prices. - China: Limited Risk of Disappointment
The main risk to watch is geographic. China accounted for 36% of ASML’s revenue in 2024, before falling back to 29% in 2025. Its revenue surged from an average of€2.7 billion per year between 2020 and 2022 to an average of €9 billion per year between 2023 and 2025. For 2026, management anticipates stabilization at around 20% of revenue, compared to an average of 15% between 2020 and 2022. In other words, a market that was a large contributor to growth is plateauing and faces the threat of new Dutch and U.S. export restrictions on China. ASML cannot sell its EUV machines in China, nor its most advanced immersion DUV machines. - In brief
This quarter’s results validate three pillars of ASML’s medium-term case: the rise of memory as a driver of demand, the visibility provided by guidance raised to €36-40 billion for 2026, and a technology roadmap that positions ASML in a sustainable monopoly. The company is targeting revenue opportunities of between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, with a target gross margin of 56% to 60%.
On the stock market, the stock has delivered a 31% annual return (including reinvested dividends) over the past 10 years and has slowed to 22% annually over the past 3 years, given the challenges of High-NA taking over as the growth driver.
